## A hypothetical interaction with the Tarot..

Suppose if we were to pose a question to the tarot on a hypothetical level. Any hopethesis posed has 2 variable outcomes- 1. there is no valuable difference between the proposed event with the outcome and as the observed is entirely due to chance., 2. there is a measurable difference which renders premise 1 non admissable and not a chance observation.

These 2 outcomes are termed Null and Alternative hypothesis respectively. How do we translate this to the tarot. Can tarot give us a statistically accurate answer in terms of measurement of its answer values? For eg- In a 1 card draw, for any question, you have a 1 in 78 chance of drawing any card for the supposed answer. should we repeat the draw, there’s another 1 in 78 chance of drawing any card inclusive of the 1st card drawn. Therefore, the probability of drawing the same card twice is 1/78 x 1/78 x 100 = 0.02 %

So, what we observe here is that- for the sake of accuracy- to get the same answer twice is a 1 in 50 event. What does this mean- in simple statistics– the chance of observing the same card pulled twice for a given question, you have to repeat the draw 50 times.

For example- Hypothetical question- should I invest millions in company X? if I get the card eg The Stars- i could be rest assured that yep- it will be agood start in investment. What If I wanted further affirmation, by that I mean, pulling the Star again to confirm the previous answer. I have 1:50 chance of pulling the Star again. Would I be happy to gamble my millions on a 1:50 chance odds? Would I bet on a horse which has a 1:50 chance of winning a race?

Maybe the answer here lies in the combinations of cards in tarot that convey the meaning yes, sure thing, beneficial move or sound investment. Now it will become a case of permutations or combinations. Well, if order of the cards pulled is important- then the permutations will give us the various selection of answers which will make me invest if these show up in a row. If the order drawn is unimportant- it will widen the possible combinations available which I will take as a yes, invest without fear answer. With me so far?

Say for example- in order for me to feel happy in investing- I want these 4 cards to come up in a draw that will say to me- yes invest. The order that they come up in is relevant. The mathematical correlate for that would be- 78 P 4 -(order of cards drawn is important and no repetitions)

so I get a large number of permutations of 4 card–34234200. If order doesnt matter- the 4 cards i want can turn up in any order – the number of 4 card combinations in a 78 card deck -1426425 is considerably less.

In Tarot- majority what we do is by the feel of the cards. But still- i am left with the question- what is the likelihood of me getting my 4 card combination that will give me the yes to invest out of the 1426425 combinations that I can pull out of my deck. I will speak with a statistician for this one-:) but In my calculation– in order to observe the 4 cards I want in a row which will give me a resolute yes- will be a remote event which will invariably fall under the Null Hypothesis category no difference, most likely a chance observation. Incidentally- only 35 combinations of 4 cards out of 1426425 combo’s will give me the resolute yes- invest. This means- the chance of tarot saying- yes Stormy- you can safely invest your millions in company XYZ is 1:400. So- actually– if the 4 cards did come up- I could attribute it to stroke of divine guidance- or fluke draw–, but I cannot assign satistical significance because i would need to repeat it again for confirmation- but would i get the sure fire first time round answer- if i did– then I sure well would think less hard about investing my money.

But honestly– how much of life do we go about making statistical calculations of each and every actions- where do you measure a gut reaction, an instinct, or a golden opportunity? But we can all take a calculated risk, right? That means seeking and assessing all avenues prior to taking a leap- how many of you will use the Tarot in your arsenal for wise counsel- especially when the wise counsel almost always doesnt give a yes/ no answer- occasionally a 50:50 answer, sometimes a lenient 60:40, or if you are extremely lucky or unlucky- a 80:20 or 90:10 :). Is this a value judgement or we can assign a spiritual weighting to each card in order to gauge the trend of the answer..

Tell me what you think about this… 🙂

Stormy

June 17, 2008 at 8:52 pm

Hi Stormy – I read a study somewhere (admittedly I don’t remember the design, because it sounds a little wonky) that superstitious people are luckier – because they actually DO things, whilst those who pay no attention to omens tend not to buy the lottery ticket, invest in that new company, or what have you.

BUT – I’m sure the flip side of this is the compulsive gambler, etc.

With tarot – I seldom use it predictively as it just doesn’t seem to be designed for that (to me). Unfortunately I’ve been in ‘bet your life’ and ‘bet your home’ situations a little too often of late – but I do pay attention to Lenormand-style oracles and astrology. E.g., the day I was scheduled to have surgery was a suck day for surgery astrologically – though I couldn’t change the date and have no way to prove that any other date would have been better – there are no controls in those kinds of situations. One thing I have noticed is that I usually have to take tablets for my diabetes when Jupiter is pounding on my natal chart, even in positive aspect. Most times it’s controllable by diet alone, but not then. And that I do keep track of, because I do glucose monitoring every day. But I’m not going to stop doing the glucose monitoring, but that’s always, always when my blood sugar goes out of range. And if it went out of range on an ‘okay’ day, I’d still treat it.

Lenormand has been exceedingly useful in predicting my financial stuff lately, including the recent windfall. I had another experience the other day with a bill – the cards said ‘wait’. So I waited. Someone else paid the bill for me. Wasn’t expecting that, but it happened – the ‘wait’ was right on. And having worked with the deck for a number of years, my feeling is that while I won’t live my life by the throw of the cards (I’ve gone through periods of a year or more without reading for myself), I won’t ignore what they say, either.

Which can be terrifically difficult to reconcile with that famous place called the world, especially if you have a background in things like critical theory and sciences.

I’m not a card junkie, at least not in the sense of needing to consult the cards to do anything. I’m doing it a lot more lately becauase I want the blog to be a realistic account of how the deck works, and not a lot of pre-rigged easy-to-figure combinations.

So I’m not really sure where I fall on the spectrum at this point, though as far as I can tell, the cards do as good, if not better, a job of predicting than financial analysts, weather forecasters, and the like. Some forms of prediction are acceptable in our society some aren’t – but they’ll always be around.